Purchase indicators of Plastics, Crude Oil, Rubber, Cotton, Sea freight, Currencies, Inflation Year, China Export rebates and China VAT

Europe Plastics prices: In July, PS (normal/clear) -4.5%, LLDPE (foil) -6.2%, PVC (foil) -7.1%, PC (clear bright) -8.8%. Original: https://www.plasticportal.eu/  Unit: EUR/Ton

Crude Oil: price dropped from USD 83/bbl to USD 74/bbl in July (-10.8%).

• Increase in oil production from U.S. and some OPEC+ members which boost supply.
• Slower economic growth (China, Europe), leading to weaker oil demand concerns.
• The USA released additional crude oil from their strategic reserves to stabilize or reduce prices.
• Fears of a potential regional war (Israel, Lebanon, Iran) and stopped production due to political instability (e.g. Lybia’s largest oil field, Sharara, due to anti-government protests and security issues) give some counterweight the price decline.

Rubber: declined from USD 1,750/ton to USD 1,630/ton in July (-6.9%, USD 1,690/ton today), as concerns over global tight supplies.

• China’s manufacturing activity fell for a third consecutive month in July, depressing demand outlooks.

Cotton: Declined from USD 1,540/ton to USD 1,500/ton in July (-2.6%, 1,450/ton as of today) due to falling oil prices and heavy selling pressure in agricultural commodities.

• Global cotton production is projected to grow steadily, reaching 29 million tons by 2033, a 17% increase from the 2021-23 base period, with India accounting for 38%, United States at 27% and Brazil at 21% (OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033′ report).

Sea freight indicators: Original: Original: https://www.drewry.co.uk/

Shanghai – Rotterdam: increased from USD 6,500/40FT to USD 8,000/40FT (+23%)

Shanghai – Los Angeles(A/C): increased from USD 6,200/40FT to USD 7,300/40FT (+17.7%).

• The US National Retail Federation point out that the consumer goods shipments will peak in August and the peak season to Europe might be earlier. Asia-Europe utilization levels have slipped recently. Besides the continued Red Sea diversions mean longer transit times and a need for earlier departures (end September instead of 2^nd half of October).
• Despite volumes likely reaching their peak, there is still no significant congestion at destination hubs from increased import traffic.
• Congestion is still a factor in Singapore and has led to some spillover to Malaysia. But overall delays have decreased, with vessel wait times under two days in Singapore.

Currencies: Original: www.oanda.com

EUR/USD: remained at 1:1.08 (0%) in July.
EUR/JPY: increased a bit from 1:170.05 to 1:171.12 (+0.6%).
EUR/CNY: increased from 1:7.80 to 1:7.87. (+0.9%).
USD/JPY: decreased from 1: 158.04 to 1:157.71. (-0.2%).
USD/TWD: increased from 1: 32.39 to 1:32.63 (+0.7%).
USD/CNY: increase from 1:7.25 to 1:7.26. (+0.1%).

Inflation Year on Year %, China Export rebates and China VAT